How to Overcome the Fear of the Outcome

By far, the number one reason why program or project owners don’t evaluate their programs at the impact and ROI level is that they have a fear that their program may not be successful, and they don’t want the client to see it or know about it. This is flawed thinking. Let’s look at some more analysis.

The chart below shows four boxes. Along one side, is the perception of the program value, positive or negative, negative ROI or a positive ROI. The other axis is reality, what actually happens, a positive ROI or a negative ROI.

If a program yields a positive ROI, and you thought it would, it was the right thing to do, which means you have a good process that is working quite well. This is quadrant 4. Your program is validated, and you have great results for marketing.

Figure 1.

 

But let’s suppose you thought it was a positive ROI, and yet, it is negative, quadrant 3. This is a great opportunity for process improvement. The evaluation would tell you where the program failed to deliver. That’s important to know because the problem is often the implementation and not the content. 

In another case, if you thought it was negative, and it is positive, that’s a pleasant surprise, quadrant 1. You would want to make sure that the factors that caused the success will be clearly present in other projects as well. It’s a teaching moment. It’s a good situation to have, and you can learn from it. 

Finally, if it is negative and you thought it was negative, that tells you that you need to make changes, and maybe it’s not the right solution. You need to know this because, ultimately, it will catch up with you. Or maybe something can be done to make it a good solution. Again, this type of analysis will show why it’s not working. You need to know this; otherwise, you are delivering an inferior process, and you’re trying to convince a client that it is going to be helpful and successful. Ultimately, your reputation will be revealed, so it’s best to do it. 

The key issue is to be proactive. Think about it this way. If you wait for a request, three things happen to you:

• You’ll have a short timeline to get results. A request typically happens after a program has been implemented. You didn’t plan to do the ROI evaluation, so now you are trying to hurry up and do it, or trying to do it on the next group. In either case, you won’t be able to deliver data quickly enough to satisfy the client. The short time frame works against you. 
• You are now being defensive. You have to defend your project. The request is based on the assumption that it is probably not delivering value, and the executives want to see it. You really want to be on the offensive. You want to be driving this yourself, deciding which projects you want to evaluate, and preparing them so you make sure you deliver the results that are needed.
• You have let ROI be on someone else’s agenda. You should keep it on your agenda. Know when to use it and how to use it. 

The key is to be proactive and not wait for the request. There is less danger when you do this because, in being proactive, you are saying to your client, We think this is delivering business value, and you think it does. Let’s evaluate this to make sure it is. If it then turns out negative, you are in a much better position to improve it. The program won’t be cancelled unless it’s the wrong solution. If it is the wrong solution, then it’s a surprise to both of you that it’s the wrong solution, and now you can consider the right solution. You can turn this into a positive experience, as we’ve seen with many of our clients. 

The fear of the outcome is not a strategy. If that is keeping us from evaluating at these levels, let’s overcome that fear. Step up to the challenge and show the results and learn from it 

Written by By Patti P. Phillips, Ph.D., and Jack J. Phillips, Ph.D., this article first appeared in ROI Institute's March 2026 Newsletter.